**Those who are right in the end are most often those who changed their minds a bunch of times** There are forecasting tournaments wherein Professional Forecasters register predictions for specific, measurable, time-bound real-world results. The Top 2 correlating factors to those forecasters who do the best are raw intelligence (as one would expect) as the 2nd highest-correlated, but by far and away **the highest-correlated trait to "being right" is how frequently the predictors changed their minds**. This is a reflection of them not being "tied" to their current prediction in light of new information. [[Being Wrong]] is part of the process leading you to being right. They don't hold predictions too closely, and actively seek out disconfirming information. This is related to [[Confidence & Being Wrong]] **** # More ## Source - [[Think Again]] ## Related - [[Feeling Correct vs Being Correct]]