When it comes to predicting performance, doing project forecasting, or trying to make a guess in some transferable area of uncertainty - **it's always good to seek an outside view**. This will _help_[^1] shield you from [[Planning Fallacy]] and # Examples - If you're getting a kitchen remodel done. Look at what quotes you get, then look at what a _typical_ "quote-to-final cost" delta is. - If you're about to start a project writing a book, look into how long it takes for a typical book to be published. **** # More ## Source - [[Thinking Fast and Slow]] ## Related - [^1]: although it's still up to you to **believe** the statistical information you've found on [[Base Rates]] **will apply to you**, because _chances are they will_, despite what you think.