**P(H|E) = (P(H)P(E|H)** !![[image.jpg.jpg]] Examples: - the medical test that's 99% accurate, predicting a disease that's 1 in 1 million, and you test positive for it... you're actually still far MORE likely NOT to have it. ![[assetsimage.jpg]] # More ## Source - [[Thinking Fast and Slow]] - [[The Organized Mind]] - [[YouTube]] - [Bayes theorem, the geometry of changing beliefs](https://youtu.be/HZGCoVF3YvM) ## Related - [[Base Rates]]