**Even simple algorithms almost often outperform expert judges, due to a reduction in noise.** Even simplistic models (using weighted averages) often are better predictors than expert judgments. > [!tldr] 👉 Experts are noisy. Simple formulas are not. This is actually probably a large part of the benefit of [[The Checklist Manifesto ]]. Reduction of [[Noise]] when deciding what to do. That’s my note, not from this book. This same concept was also discussed in [[Thinking Fast and Slow]], referred to as [[Frugal Models]]. You have to check that your algorithm isn’t ‘baking in’ prejudices (either directly or indirectly). See [[Math & Fairness]]. **** # More ## Source - [[Noise - A Flaw in Human Judgment]] ## Related - [[Noise]] - [[Math & Fairness]]