**Even simple algorithms almost often outperform expert judges, due to a reduction in noise.**
Even simplistic models (using weighted averages) often are better predictors than expert judgments.
> [!tldr] 👉 Experts are noisy. Simple formulas are not.
This is actually probably a large part of the benefit of [[The Checklist Manifesto ]]. Reduction of [[Noise]] when deciding what to do. That’s my note, not from this book. This same concept was also discussed in [[Thinking Fast and Slow]], referred to as [[Frugal Models]].
You have to check that your algorithm isn’t ‘baking in’ prejudices (either directly or indirectly). See [[Math & Fairness]].
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# More
## Source
- [[Noise - A Flaw in Human Judgment]]
## Related
- [[Noise]]
- [[Math & Fairness]]