> [!tldr] When there's a million things happening, the chances of something that's 1-in-a-million happening *are pretty good* A huge number of things happen. That means that there's *also* a large number of **rare** things that happen. We just hear about the rare things more often – partly because [[Best Story Wins]] and [[No Coincidence, No Story]]. We talk about 1-in-a-100 years events like: - Pandemics - Floods - Hurricanes - Tornadoes - Landslides - Volcanoes - Storm - Tsunami - Earthquake - Economic collapses But, on any given year, any **one** of those 1% likely events happening is: $1-\frac{99}{100}^{10}\approx{10}\%$ ...extend that list to include more things and you get higher and higher likelihoods that at least *one* of them will happen. For the same reason that [[Habits Have Compounding Returns]]. **** # More ## Source - [[Same as Ever]]